What Weight Should I Lift Today? Use Your Last Workout to Choose

The 30-Second Load Decision

The best answer to “what weight should I lift today?” usually starts with evidence, not ambition. Open your last workout and find the most recent set that matches today's exercise, equipment, rep target, and technique standard. That number is your baseline—not an order you must obey.

Then make one decision:

• Progress: add a small amount if the previous set hit the top of the target range with clean form and the intended reps in reserve.
• Repeat: keep the same load if the previous set was productive but left room to improve reps or execution.
• Adjust down: reduce the load when the warm-up is unexpectedly slow, technique is unstable, or readiness is clearly below normal.

This approach turns your log into a target. It also prevents two common mistakes: repeating the same comfortable number forever and adding weight just because the calendar changed.

Start With the Last Comparable Set

“Last time” only helps when the comparison is fair. A barbell bench press is not automatically comparable to a paused bench press. A set after three minutes of rest is different from one after sixty seconds. A fresh first work set is different from a fatigued final set.

Use these five checks before treating the last number as your baseline:

1. Same exercise variation and equipment
2. Same target rep range
3. Similar range of motion and technique
4. Similar place in the workout
5. Similar rest period

If several conditions changed, treat the first working set as calibration instead of forcing a direct comparison.

Use Double Progression for Hypertrophy

Double progression is one of the simplest ways to choose a load across sessions. Pick a rep range—for example, 8–12 reps—and keep the same weight until you can reach the top of that range with your planned technique and effort.

Suppose your log shows dumbbell incline press at 30 kg for 10, 9, and 8 reps:

• Next time, start at 30 kg and try to add one or more total clean reps.
• When your work sets reach the top of the programmed range, move to the smallest available increase.
• After increasing, expect reps to fall toward the bottom of the range and build again.

This gives every session a concrete win condition without turning every workout into a maximum test.

Use RPE or RIR to Keep the Number Honest

Weight and reps do not describe the whole set. Eight reps with four reps in reserve is not the same stimulus as eight reps with one rep in reserve. Recording effort makes the next decision more accurate.

• RIR 3–4: the set may support a small load or rep increase if that matches the program.
• RIR 1–2: usually a productive working-set zone; progress only when form and rep targets support it.
• RIR 0 or failed rep: do not automatically add weight next time. Improve execution or complete the target first.

RPE and RIR are estimates, so consistency matters more than pretending they are perfectly precise.

Let the Warm-Up Veto the Spreadsheet

Your plan is a hypothesis. The warm-up is today's evidence. If familiar warm-up loads move normally and your setup feels stable, continue with the planned starting weight. If they are unusually slow or coordination feels poor, use a smaller increment, repeat the prior load, or reduce it.

Stop or modify the exercise if you feel sharp, sudden, or worsening pain. Training data can guide load selection, but it cannot diagnose an injury. Seek qualified medical guidance when pain or symptoms need assessment.

Three Real-World Examples

Bench press: add weight

Last session: 80 kg × 8 at roughly 2 RIR, with eight as the top of the programmed range. Today: warm-ups are normal. Choose the smallest practical increase and aim for the bottom of the range with the same technique.

Squat: repeat and improve

Last session: 120 kg × 6, but depth and bar path deteriorated on the final two reps. Today: use 120 kg again and make six technically consistent reps the target.

Row: adjust down

Last session: 75 kg × 10. Today: the same warm-up feels unusually heavy after poor sleep. Start slightly lighter, keep the intended RIR, and avoid turning one low-readiness day into a form breakdown.

What to Record So Next Time Is Easier

A useful log should tell your future self what happened without requiring detective work. Record:

• Exercise variation, load, reps, and work sets
• RPE or reps in reserve when it affects the decision
• Technique changes, shortened range, or assistance
• Rest time when it differs from normal
• A short note for unusual fatigue, pain, or equipment changes

You do not need a diary between sets. You need enough context to make the next target obvious.

The Bottom Line

Choose today's weight from the last comparable result. Add the smallest practical increment when you own the top of the rep range. Repeat when there are still clean reps to earn. Adjust down when today's warm-up says capacity is lower.

Progressive overload works best as a series of honest, repeatable decisions—not random jumps.